January 24, 2008

La Center, Washington Residential Real Estate Stats.

La Center, Washington is a small town in Clark County Washington. It has a population of around 1,700. It is located about 16 miles north of Portland, Oregon. As of the 2000 census there were 552 households. This all suggests that even in an active market there would not be a lot of activity in any given month in La Center, Washington. In the graph below there are two months where there were no sales of houses. Also, the sales statistics were based on total sales activity of zero to nine sales in a given month for each of the months displayed. The average was 4.17 sales per month. Statistics are a wonderful thing and can give us a sense of size, dimension and activity levels of such things as residential markets. But, when the sales activity is so low, the statistics can also provide information that is nonsense. Like in the case of one man being in perfect health and one man being dead; on average, they are both just sick. That’s statistically sound NONSENSE. (La Center, Washington Residentai Market Stats. graph)
lacentergraph.JPG

(The red line is sales price.  The black line is the days on market.)

The graph appears to depict a great deal of volatility in the market. But, knowing that the November statistics were based on four sales, one being a 1974 model manufactured house, one was a one year old house in a “short sale,” and two were modern houses of 1,400 to 1,500 square feet in size. All this suggests to me that the last three months of data is essentially useless and that, although recently quiet, the La Center market is slowly moving along at its normal value levels. I am, of course, projecting the general trend of sales averages in the $300,000 to $400,000 level. Also, the Days On Market have generally been in the 60 to 80 day range recently. (Still projecting here)

It is very important to realize that these statistics are based on very few data points. One sale of a very high value property, or one sale of a very low value property, would have a great influence in these market statistics.

Overall, I’d say the La Center market is doing well as it rides out the same storm the larger market is experiencing.

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser

Pacific West Appraisal Services, Inc.

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