Who’s the Bad Guy?

I recently read about a state where the real estate appraisers are promoting legislation to prevent coercion of appraisers.  What they’d like to see is a law that makes it illegal for anyone to ask an appraiser to produce fraudulent appraisal reports.  It would be illegal to blacklist, bribe, extort, intimidate or refuse to pay an appraiser for not producing the specific appraisal results wanted.

This looks like a good idea.  If those who do these things to get their way with the appraiser’s work have no downside (fines and jail time) to discourage them, the so called “lender pressure” will never end.

Over the years I have gotten to know who the appraisers are that do “custom” work; appraisals that have a value conclusion based on the borrower’s or lender’s desires rather than a U.S.P.A.P. appropriate REPORT of the market value of the property.   I review appraisals for lenders.  Recently I reviewed an appraisal where the appraiser used four listings and one sale, ignoring all the other available sales data, in order to come up with a value conclusion that matched the developers sale price of a multi million dollar residential property.  What’s up with that???  It doesn’t meet the U.S.P.A.P.  It doesn’t meet FNMA guidelines.  It was a total piece of “custom” junk.   I don’t know what the conversation was between the lender and the appraiser, but the appraiser should be spanked good for that one.

I fall into a different category of opinion than those who are working to prevent the non coercion legislation (though it appears a good idea).  I say it is the appraiser who is at fault.  I mean to say, that if I was asked by someone to rob a bank and give them the money, I’d tell them to “buzz off!”  That’s an easy one.  But, if a lender asks me to produce a fraudulent appraisal report so they can close a deal that wouldn’t happen without the fraudulent report, and they offer to give me lots of appraisal assignments if I just “play along,” it is more tempting.  I can up my gross income working with a lender like that.  Really.  I can do great with those people.

I suggest here that most residential real estate appraisers work that way.  They roll over and give the lender any thing they want, as long as the work keeps coming.  And, they know that many state’s licensure and certification offices don’t have enough staff to pursue them if they get challenged for this kind of work.  Law with little or no teeth.

In an ideal world, every appraiser would “just say no” to coercive activities designed to get the appraiser to produce fraudulent appraisals.   If all appraisers said “NO,” the lending industry would have to live with appraisals that REPORT the market’s indication of what the property is worth.  This would leave lenders knowing what their level of risk is on loans they create.  And, it would make their real estate based securities more marketable.  And, the return they would get from the sale of those securities would be maximized due to the “known” risk rather than a great deal of “unknown” risk due to appraisal fraud.

Although an idealist, I do realize that I (and we) do not live in an ideal world.  When money is made available, integrity very often goes out the window.  It is on the news every day.

High End Condos in NW Portland, Oregon

The high end condominium market in the northwest quadrant of Portland, Oregon is the most active condominium market in the city. It also has, on average, the most expensive condominiums in Portland.

This quadrant of the downtown area consisted primarily of old, little used multi story industrial warehouse buildings that had fallen into disfavor as the industrial warehousing market moved to the suburbs. The old multi story, elevator served, close in industrial storage and distribution uses faded as the one story, suburban, high square footage, dock high, fork lift served industrial product took over.

In the wake of the warehousing exodus, the northwest downtown quadrant was very under used. Lots of the first floor space in the old warehouse buildings was occupied with the upper levels unused.

Then came the residential renaissance that began in the middle 1980′s. The first “experiment” with “artist loft” housing was in the old McKesson/Robins building between Hoyt and Irving on NW 14th Avenue. This project pioneered the new high rise condo market in NW downtown Portland. With its completion, and eventual sell out in the middle 1980′s the way was paved for other development. Today there are lots of condominium projects in this area. Some are high rise, some mid rise. Some re-used existing buildings. Many are new buildings. During 2007 it was common to see 6 – 12 cranes on the skyline, erecting new buildings.

This is now one of the best accepted areas of town with lots of single family condominium housing, served by lots of shops and restaurants. A true renaissance.

The recent real estate sales activity and price history is presented in the charts and graphs below. The segment studied was that of condominiums with a sale price over $1,500,000.

[TABLE=16]

As can be seen from the chart, the sales prices have steadily risen. The Days on Market were relatively low, until 2007, when they nearly tripled. And, the current Days on Market for listings is at 281 days. And, these haven’t sold yet.

The following graph paints the picture.

lastpdxcondograph.JPG

(The Sales Price and Days on Market are Averages)

The graph shows the relationship between sales price and Days on Market. Sales prices had leveled off with a trend for a slow increase. Days on Market were low, then jumped in 2007. The Listing’s Days on Market have risen a lot. As that trend might continue, it would produce a downward pressure on sales prices.

It should also be noted that this High End market does not have a lot of sales activity. The sales activity for each of the time frames examined was: First Half 2006 = two sales; Second Half 2006 = 4 sales; First Half 2007 = seven sales; Second Half 2007 = nine sales. Also, there are now 28 listings in this category. If we look at the Second Half of 2007, with total sales of nine units over $1,500,000, and divide that into the current listings, we derive a suggestion that there is just over a three month supply of this category of housing. Of course, the market is changing speed, and perhaps course. The statistics at the end of the first quarter of 2008 will be very telling of where this market is headed.

Ralph K. Olsen, Appraiser

Pacific West Appraisal Services, Inc.

pwas.net


Condos in Clackamas, Oregon

The condominium market in Clackamas, Oregon has been showing some interesting changes. A review of all the data in the MLS for that area (zip code 97015) has been included in this analysis. The questions had been asked if property values were going up or down, if supply and demand were in balance and if marketing times were reasonable. Let’s see.

In the six months from December 1st 2006 to June 1st 2006 the average sales price of a condo in Clackamas was $134,887. In the six months from June 1st to December 1st 2007 the average sales price was $140,030. This is a 4% rise in sales price. So, we could say the market is up. However, the market has taken a turn and these statistics are past based. They can not look forward. We must keep in mind that as the market turns an “increase in the rate of decrease” may be occurring that the recent statistics do not show. I say that around April 1st 2008 this analysis might be done again and then we will have a much better reading of the market’s direction. Right now it is pointed downward, but this could be short lived. Also, there is a bell curve of activity over a typical year. It is cold in January and the market activity is lower. It is hot in July and the market activity is up. It is cold in December and market activity is down again. With this standard bell curve of activity in mind, it is understood that this time of the year would show lower activity than the summer. Yet, all signs appear to be down for now.

In the last six months there were 40 sales of condos in Clackamas through MLS listings. That equates to 6.67 sales per month. There are now 70 such listings. That suggests a ten and a half month supply on the market at this time.

And what is happening with marketing time??? Well, it looks like this. In the six months from December 1st 2006 to June 1st 2007 the average marketing time for condominiums in Clackamas was 11 days. Since June 1st 2007 the average marketing time was 36 days. AND, there are now 70 listings. AND, they have been on the market for an average of 129 days. Now that is an upswing!!! Or, should I say, downswing?

(It should be noted that none of the statistics in this analysis have been gleaned to remove anomalies. It is all the raw stuff.)

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser

pwas.net

COPYRIGHT ANNOUNCEMENT

The way the law is structured it goes without saying that all that is published here is copyrighted. I have always wanted to begin the closing paragraph of an appraisal with “As any fool can plainly see………” How could anyone contest my conclusion with an intro like that???

Anyway, you have my permission to use anything you find here for you own use. And, if you use what you see here in any kind of publication, like an appraisal report, give credit to pwas.net. That is where you found it. That is its source. And, please hyper link it. Easy.

As time goes by more in depth analysis of local real estate markets will appear here. You are welcome to the info presented and encouraged to let me know what else you’d like to see examined (i.e. different market segments or product types). As our nervous markets continue to shake, rattle and roll there will be lots to talk about.

As a matter of fact, I was visiting a local appraisal office the other day. As you might expect, the topic of the condition of today’s residential real estate market came up. One of the appraisers said she had so little confidence in the market that she would not consider buying a US Treasury Note with a maturity of more than 12 months. Hearing this, another appraiser in the conversation said he had even less confidence than her and would not consider a Treasury Note with a maturity of more than six months. It was then the office manager spoke up and said that both of them had more confidence than she had. And, in fact she wouldn’t buy green bananas!

We all have our own crystal ball. The question is “how clear is it?”

My next posting will be a study of the high end, downtown Vancouver condominium market.

Ralph Olsen, appraiser

pwas.net

What are they thinking????

Recently I was asked by two different appraisal management companies (AMC) to submit miscellaneous information to them so I could be put on their list of approved appraisers and receive appraisal assignments from them. In each case I sent them the copies of appraisal certifications, applications, phone numbers, addresses, etc., etc. In each case they wanted a work sample. In each case they disqualified me based on their review of the work samples. In each case I had looked into my files, found the report that required no thought whatsoever, and sent a copy along. They rejected the reports.

These were reports accepted by other companies without follow up requests for further data or clarification. They were good reports; they were easy reports. Any of us who submit such work for “samples” know from experience that the lender or AMC is not interested to see how we think and analyze, they just want to know if we can fill in the form and produce the necessary attachments that complete a residential appraisal report. (The very first time I was asked to submit a work sample, all those years ago, I submitted a report on a property that was very difficult to analyze, and I thought I had done a very good job of applying appropriate appraisal techniques and sound logic producing a defensible result. “REJECT”

So, these two recent times I sent the very easiest I had recently done. The subject was less than a year old. Each of the sales, of which there were about forty available, were within a half mile of the subject. The only adjustment that was needed was for a patio. The subject had one, the others did not. “REJECT”

By now you’re probably wondering why I am taking up your time whining about it. Well, this is why. In each case, when I was notified that my sample report had been rejected, I contacted the company involved and inquired what was wrong with the report. Why had they rejected it, I asked????? In each case they told me that it was company policy to not tell the appraiser what the concern was. And, in each case I asked them to provide me with their report writing criteria so I might follow it and re-submit. And, in each case they refused to provide such criteria.

When I became an MAI and when I became an SRA, the Appraisal Institute was forthright enough to provided me with a statement of what they required to pass the “demonstration report” requirement to receive those designations. And, in each case I followed their guidelines and passed. (Far more difficult than any business report.) Yet, a business looking for appraisers to provide appraisal services to them play this odd cat and mouse game with the prospective appraisers. I can not figure out any possible advantage to the company looking for appraisal services to be so guarded in allowing the prospective appraiser to know what the report writing criteria of that company is.

If you do, please send an e-mail and let me know.

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser

pwas.net

Portland Oregon Residential Market

October 2007
Today’s topic discussion covers-real estate appraisal Portland Oregon- the detached housing market in Multnomah County Oregon. The territory covered is the Rose City area from 42nd Avenue to 82nd Avenue.
As of October 2007 there were 197 listings in this category. The high list price was $799,000 and the low was $159,950. The average list price was $341,131. The average sales price for sales in this category over the last 6 months was $355,535 (Note: This is the average over the last 6 months, not just the recent month). The high days on market (DOM) was 253, with the low being zero (0) and the average 34. The average list to sales price ratio was 99%. A year ago the average sales price to list price was 97%. (This if for the whole market, not just attached housing.) With a total sold of 22 in the last month and 137 on the market there is currently about a six (6) month supply on the market.
Although average marketing time, or Days on Market (DOM), was 27 a year ago and now is 34 (a 26% increase) the marketing times have been reasonable at less than 90 days over the past year. However, with a 6 month supply currently on the market the DOM is likely to rise somewhat. And, at the same time, appreciation in Multnomah County as a whole has been 7.2% over the last 12 months. By comparison it was 14.4% in January of this year for the prior twelve months average. So, you can see it has been dropping. And, it is predicted to continue to drop.
Forecasting is hard to predict. With the market cooling as it is, sales slowing, inventories rising, what the next three to four months hold in store will be interesting to see.
Available interest rates locally for fixed 30 year hover around 5.5% to 6.25% and 15 year from about 5.0% to 5.5%. This is still a very favorable climate for market activity except for the current high inventories (and , of course, the loss of available money for the B, C and D credits). Statistics are from the local MLS

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser at PWAS.NET

Residential Appraisals Vancouver, WA

Pacific West Appraisal Services, Inc. provides real estate appraisal services for land, houses, duplexes, triplexes, fourplexes and condominiums.

We provide short forms, long forms and narrative reports.

The staff is headed by Ralph Olsen who is a Certified General Appraiser in Washington and Oregon. That means the states place no limit on what kinds and value levels of appraisals we can do.

Our office and service structure is designed to maximize efficiency to the lender and provide the best service possible to the borrower. Appointments are kept on time and the customer well served.