The topic of this post is the area known as Sifton in the northeastern part of the Vancouver, Washington metro area. Sifton is generally covered by the MLS area 25 and all the statistics presented here are from area 25. In this analysis properties built in the last 20 years, on typical residential homesites (not acreage), detached two story construction were used as the market indicators. In the chart below the average sales prices and average days on market are presented for the last three years.

SIFTON

As can be seen the average sale price grew about 22% in the 2005 to 2006 time frame and about 5% in the more recent time frame. The rate of growth has slowed considerably. Also, the days on market have increased greatly. In the 2005 to 2006 time frame the days on market grew about 75% and in the 2006 to 2007 range grew another 75%. Looking only at data from the last two months the average days on market is about 87 days. This compared to 83 days on average in the previous two month period and 74 days in the two months prior to that. So, the days on market has been growing in the last year and a half, but it appears to be stabilizing in recent months.

Average sales prices in the last two months were $293,782. In the two months before that were $293,223. And in the two months before that were $291,688. This is a very stable price trend while marketing time has expanded considerably, yet is not extraordinary at 87 days currently.

Overall the Sifton area appears to be representative of the market in general. The rate of inflation has slowed. Marketing times have lengthened. There is a lot of talk about the market collapsing and being in bad shape. It appears to me that the market is much more normal. It’s like when you are driving down the freeway at 90 MPH and you see a police car at the side of the road. You slow down to 60 MPH (the legal limit) and it seems very slow. But, in reality, it is normal and only seems slow by comparison. It looks to me like the market is correcting and getting back to normal. And, with all the “liquidity” the Fed is pumping into the system and with the lower interest rates, we should see the value of the dollar continue to slide (or did I mean to say property prices continue to rise [Is there a difference?].)

I also note that there were, on average, 6.25 sales per month in this area for the property type under review. There are 53 current listings. That suggests an eight and a half month supply on the market. If the “liquidity” factor and lower interest rates have their intended affect, the market should start popping along after the first of the year. We’ll see.

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser

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