Foreclosures are Down in Clark County Washington

The Clark County Auditor’s office reports that the notice of trustee sale (NTS) statistics for the last six months were as follows:

May – 212

June – 202

July – 218

August – 179

September – 110

October – 92

That is an average of 169 per month.  I 2o10 the average per month was 320.  In 2009 the average per month was 193.  In 2008 the average was 257.  In 2007 the average was 130 per month.

So, you can see, these recent statistics are encouraging.  Back in 2005 and 2006 the average number of NTS was in the range of 70 to 75 per month.  It will take another year or so of monitoring to draw any solid conclusions, but these recent statistics are looking better than most of the last four years.

I’ll graph all this and give more details after Thanksgiving.

Happy Thanksgiving

Ralph Olsen, IFA

pwas.net

Returning to the conversation, Vancouver, WA (Clark County WA) residential real estate economics

It has been some time since I have posted anything here.  I have been, like we all say, busy.

But it is time.  I have lots of things to talk about.  I have been the President of the Rose City Chapter of NAIFA, moderator of he Vancouver Chapter of the NWREIA, creating a new appraisal product, participating in ACOW board of directors meetings, new member of BNI, and trying to keep the grass mowed and weeds down.

I just spoke with the Clark County Auditor’s office.  I will have some statistics to report about foreclosures soon.  The statistics appear to be encouraging, but some analysis is in order before getting excited about them.

Our industry is changing a lot and rapidly.  There is news about things that are surprising and not so surprising.  Some stuff has been predictable and some not so.  We’ll talk about it all, or at least lots of it.

Thanks

Ralph Olsen, IFA

pwas.net

HOW DOES THE APPRAISER MEASURE THE HOUSE?

If you look at the blueprints of a house, the outside measurements are of the exterior part of the foundation wall.  The framing of the house and the exterior siding can extend beyond the foundation wall.

When an appraiser is measuring a house, I feel it is best to approximate the foundation wall dimensions.  Therefore, if a wall being measured is 24 feet nine inches long, it might be better to call that a 24 and 1/2 foot wall.  Rounding back three inches would put the measurements closer to representing the exterior foundation wall, rather than the measurements of the siding.  More importantly, it would be inappropriate for the appraiser to round the 24 foot nine inch measurement to 25 feet.  By doing this the appraiser would be including space that is not contained in the house.

Garages and other attached or detached areas are usually measured separately.  An important reason for this is that a garage usually is not finished to the degree of the living area of the house.  The garage seldom has bathrooms, or kitchens and usually no finished flooring.  For this reason the garage would need to be analyzed separately, therefore measured separately.

Today there are very good sketching programs that allow the appraiser to enter the house dimensions and have a very accurate representation of the dimensions of the house.

Ralph Olsen

pwas.net

APPRAISAL METHODOLOGIES

I have been asked to describe the methodologies that appraisers use when estimating the market value of a house.  There is a lot to be said about that topic, but I will briefly describe the methods here.  With houses as the frame of reference, I will describe the three appraisal methods with the least reliable first and the most reliable last.

First, the Income Approach to value is used when a property produces an income stream to the owner.  This approach is more viable with apartment buildings, shopping centers, office buildings, etc.  All these property types are designed to produce a revenue stream.  Houses, on the other hand, are mainly built to house an owner occupant.  A small percentage of the housing stock is rented.  For this reason, it is difficult (but not impossible) to develop a value estimation based on revenues generated by the property.  Also, to do this type of analysis there must be plentiful information from houses that sold while rented.  It is from recent sales of rented houses that the Gross Rent Multiplier is developed.  Since this data is not plentiful, the Income Approach to value is not often very reliable for house appraisal analysis.

Second, the Cost Approach to value is used in most residential appraisals.  The idea is to estimate the site (land) value, add to it the cost to build the house, and from that subtract the depreciation on the improvements (house).  A new house has no accrued physical depreciation.  Older houses have more or less depreciation depending on their age, how well they have been maintained, and other economic influences.  Although the Cost Approach is generally useful, it is not what the market uses to set house prices.  So, it is not as reliable as the Sales Comparison Approach, but often more reliable than the Income Approach.

Third, the Sales Comparison Approach is the one that best reflects the activities of the market.  This technique looks at recent sales of houses near and similar to the house being appraised (subject property).  After gathering the most recent, near and similar sales data, the appraiser will go through an analytical process to compensate for differences between the subject property and the other sales.  For instance, if the subject house has a one car garage, and one of the sales that was nearby and recent had a two car garage, yet was otherwise very similar to the subject, the appraiser would subtract the value of the second garage space from the sales price of the house with the two car garage.  This effectively accounts for the difference in value of a house with a one car garage compared to a similar house with a two car garage.  After all the details of this process are completed the appraiser will have several “adjusted” sales that give value indications.  After completing this process the appraiser has to decide which of the data is most similar to the subject property and then determine a value conclusion.

This whole process leads to the value conclusion that the appraiser presents in an appraisal report.  The process is simple and straight forward.  If you ever read an appraisal report, and you don’t understand how the value conclusion was reached, either the appraiser was not a good report writer, or someone is tying to fool someone.  There are properties that are so unusual that it is difficult to make sense of them.  Then, the  appraisal report may be more difficult to follow.  But, generally, an appraisal report is very logical and funnels down from the general information about the property and the market it is in, down to the specific value conclusion.

Ralph Olsen

pwas.net

DISTRESSED PROPERTY RATIOS

I had an investor ask me to supply him with some information about residential properties in Clark County.  He had a specific set of search criteria.  They were:  all of Clark County, one story houses, built since 1970, with three bedrooms, two bathrooms, attached garages, between 1,100 and 1,500 square feet of living area.

Doing the search there were 120 results.  Out of those results 18 (15%) were bank owned and 67 (56%) were short sale offerings.   That is a total of 71% of that market segment that is now short sales or REO (bank owned property).

Not such good news.

Ralph Olsen

pwas.net

Foreclosure Rate Still High

Clark County continues to have a lot of foreclosure activity.  The charts shown in the January 4th post indicted very high rates.  Now, you can add the numbers for January and February.  They were 262 and 225 respectively.

These numbers are down a little bit from the recent averages.  But, it will likely be some time before these numbers drop significantly.

Ralph Olsen

pwas.net

COMPARABLE PROPERTY, A DEFINITION

Writing to appraisers and underwriters, I am proposing a definition of a “comparable sale” in the residential sector.

First I must say that the word “comparable” in the residential real estate industry, is used by many who have no idea what it means.  All of us appraisers receive e-mails and phone calls now and then asking us why we did not use a certain “comparable” in our report.  Then, when we look at the sale that is being suggested as “comparable,” we find it is not at all similar to the subject.

My definition of a residential Comparable:

“A combination of land and house that is, compared to the subject property being analyzed, more similar in size, style, age, and location than any others in the marketing area of the subject property, and that sold more recently than others.”

So, for a sale to be a comparable, the house and land compliment should be similar to the “subject” property (the one being analyzed or appraised).  Also, for a sale to be a comparable, the property should serve the same market as the subject property.  And, for a sale to be a comparable, the house should be of similar age and style as the subject.  And, for a sale to be a comparable, the sale of the property should have been more recent than other sales that would otherwise qualify as comparable.

From time to time I receive questions asking why I did not use “this comparable” in my report.  In every case, the so called “comparable” sent was completely unlike the subject property, and, not comparable at all.

I have not been told where the people who submit this misleading information that they call comparables get them.  But, whoever is supplying it should be questioned.

So, underwriters, please don’t send trash and ask us appraisers to defend ourselves with reasons we did not put trash into our reports.

And, please memorize the definition of “comparable.”

Ralph K. Olsen

pwas.net

BANK OWNED V. SHORT SALES V. NORMAL SALES

I did a study of several Clark County MLS districts to see what the difference is in Short Sale prices as compared to Bank Owned prices.  I also did a study of all sales that were not Bank Owned or Short Sales.

Here is what I found.

Compared to the sales of properties that were not in distress (Bank Owned or Short Sales), the Short Sales and Bank Owned sales showed the following discounts.

Short Sales                            Bank Owend

-15.23%                                   -16.10%

-12.18%                                   – 8.09%

-13.65%                                  -15.06%

-17.60%                                  -13.54%

The average for Short Sales was      -14.67%.

The average for Bank Owned was   -13.20%.

As you can see the Short Sales and the Bank Owned properties all suffer in the market.  Short Sales take a bigger hit than Bank Owned do.

In the analysis I threw out the outliers.   I only used areas where there were ample numbers to make the results statistically reliable.

Ralph Olsen

pwas.net

INVESTORS LEAVING MONEY ON THE TABLE

I have seen many examples of investors that have bought, rehabbed,  then sold a property and left tens of thousands of dollars on the table.

It appears that many do not do their homework well when analyzing the current market value of a property.  I have seen houses that were very well rehabbed that sold for less than the average house was selling for in the area.

The rehabbers need to be more attentive to what the value of properties are when they put them up for sale.

You can use www.whatsthepropertyworth.com here in Clark County.  It works very well.

Ralph K. Olsen, MAI, SRA, IFA

pwas.net