Recently a lender was surprised at the results of an appraisal in Battle Ground. They thought that values would be much higher than the appraisal report said they were. So, here is some analysis of the Battle Ground housing market. All the data is based on houses built since 1990 on sites of 3,000 to 15,000 square feet. This more modern housing stock on platted lots is more consistent in building code and construction conformity than the older stock, or houses on acreage. It was felt that these chosen limitations would more accurately demonstrate market changes, without the influence of unusual properties.

The market was further segregated into three sub categories. There is data on one story houses. There is data on two story houses. And, there is data on the combination of one story and two story houses (Mixed). Listings were looked at. Sales from the last six months were looked at. Sales from the previous six months were looked at. And, mixed sales from all of the year 2006 were looked at.

Looking at the mixed (one story, two story, split level, etc.) in the recent past six months, there were 47 sales. The average days on the market were 76. The average sales price was $293,907. The average listing price to sales price ratio was 97.78%.

In the one story category during the recent past six months there were 27 sales. The average days on the market were 76. The average sales price was $258,026. The average listing price to sales price ratio was 98.61%.

The two story category during the recent past six months included 20 sales. The average days on the market were 77. The average sales price was $$342,347. The average listing price to sales price ratio was 96.94%.

Please note: It appears from looking at the statistics that there are more high end houses built in the two story configuration and more low end houses built in the one story configuration. This factor skews two story houses toward the upper end of the scale and one story houses toward the lower. For example, the highest sale for a two story house, during this time from, was $504,279, while for a one story it was $445,000. The low end for a two story was $232,415. And, the low end for a one story house was $200,400.

Now, lets look back in time. The previous six months (December 2006 to June 2007) presented the following statistics. For the mixed stock there were 44 sales. The average days on the market were 64. The average sales price was $293,379. The average listing price to sales price ratio was 98.7%.

For one story houses there were 21 sales. The average days on the market were 58. The average sales price was $255,204. The average listing price to sales price ratio was 98.99%.

For two story houses there were 22 sales. The average days on the market were 72. The average sales price was $325,791. The average listing to sales price ratio was 98.32%.

Now, a look at all property configurations in Battle Ground on platted lots for all of the year 2006. The stats were as follows: The average days on the market were 56. The average sales price was $311,085. The average listing price to sales price ratio was 99.74%.

Lets look at some charts and graphs.

Days on Market

As you can see, the Days On Market (DOM) are getting longer and longer. The actual sales for the last six months were at 76 DOM, while the current listings average 132 DOM. And, they haven’t sold yet. This trend is happening here and there all over the Metropolitan Area.  But not everywhere nor in all sub markets.

Average Sales Price

Average sales prices fell until the early middle of this year, then stabilized. This is also a common trend locally.

Now, take a peak at this chart. Both trends overlayd. You can see the spread growing in the relationship of DOM and sales prices. As the spread gets bigger, the downward pressure on sales prices will increase. AND, as the spread continues in time, the downward pressure on sales prices will increase (even if the spread does not get larger). So, unless the current efforts to rescue the market from its ills are successful, the indicators show where we are headed.

At the first of the year I will review the Notice of Trustee Sale statistics again, and look at some residential sales indicators and see how they are advancing.

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser

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