This is a glance at the recent three years of market activity in Fairway Village. Included are the site built houses on single family lots. Not included are condos or attached housing.

Fairway Village was built in the early 1980’s. I did the appraisal for the original development then. Fairway Village includes condominiums, detached houses and attached houses. There is a golf course that the housing surrounds. It is a development for senior citizens with a minimum age requirement of 55 years. Young children can not live there.

Fairway Village

As you can see from the chart the prices in Fairway Village have been increasing over the last years. They went up 16.5% from 2005 to 2006 and up 5.6% from 2006 to 2007. The increase has decreased recently, as the rest of the market. The marketing time went from 48 days to 26 days to 52 days over the three year period. In the last year there have been, on average, about two sales per month. There are 15 houses on the market right now, so that is a seven to eight month supply. Overall Fairway Village is doing well and, although reflecting the overall market characteristics, is a bit more stale than many areas. Of course it serves a more gentrified and stable market segment.

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser

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Residential Duplex Market in Vancouver, Washington
Questions about duplexes have been coming up quite often recently. It seems that the expectations of buyers and owners in this market segment continues to soar, even after the market has cooled. I looked at several geographic areas of the market. Following are the statistics and trends that I found.
Looking at Vancouver, Harney Heights to Hazel Dell, duplexes only:

Harney Heights to Hazel Dell

Looking at the I-205 corridor out to State Route 500:

I-205 Corridor from SR 14 to SR 500

In the first example, which is older housing stock, the trend has been consistent. Duplex prices have been rising while marketing time has also been rising. This suggests an arrival of price stabilization, if not softening.
In the second data group the market has been rising. There is a mixed message. Prices rose then fell back a little, on average. At the same time the average days on market rose then fell back somewhat. This makes it hard to tell what will happen next.
Even though more money has been injected into the system and interest rates have fallen the market could still soften more.

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser

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This posting covers the foreclosure activity in Clark County Washington for the last nineteen months.

As can be seen from the chart, the foreclosure filings in Clark County have almost tripled since the first of 2006. There are some small valleys along the way, but the general trend line is up. You can see how the trend was fairly stable through the end of 2006. Then, with a February dip, the numbers rose rapidly. I will continue to follow these statistics.

Ralph Olsen Appraiser

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Real Estate Appraisal Washington

Ridgefield Residential Housing Market October 2007

This analysis is limited to existing residential housing on lot sizes from 4,000 square feet to 15,000 square feet. So, it does not include houses on acreage. It includes all ages of house, all sizes of house and the full price range. It does not include attached housing, house boats, or manufactured housing. The data source is the RMLS.

The statistics were as follows:

Houses in Ridgefield, Washington

Prices have been steadily increasing while marketing times have also. Now let’s look at lots and land, all in the 4,000 to 15,000 square foot range.

Residential Lots in Ridgefield, Washington

Now, let’s take a look at how many lots are listed in this same location and size range in mid October 2007. And the number is: 110. In the last 12 months there were 11 lots sold through the MLS in Ridgefield. So, there is an eleven (11) YEAR inventory at the current absorption rate. Yikes! (It should be noted that many lots created are built upon by the company that created the lots, and the lots are not offered separately on the market. That is why there can be more sales of new houses than there are sales of bare new lots. And, not all lots are listed through the MLS.)

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser

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Analysis in Clark County Washington

Occasionally I like to go back and look at relocation appraisals I’ve done and see how I did. You know that a relocation appraisal is an estimated of anticipated future sales price, not market value. So, these appraisals have a specific purpose to the relocation industry. A relocation company lives or dies by its decisions in buying houses. If the appraiser is badly missing the mark, the relocation company has serious problems.

I picked three reports I did in the second and third quarter of 2007. They are scattered around Clark County Washington. One is close in, near the City of Vancouver. One is suburban northwest. One is suburban northeast on small acreage. Lets see how I did.

Looking at the first one in the Minnehaha area of Vancouver, I see that I said it would sell within 120 days for about $180,000. It is a remodeled 55 year old house just under 1,000 square feet of living area on a 10,000 square foot lot. The appraisal was done in the middle of July. Looking at absorption rates for houses like the subject, near the subject it looked like there was about a three month supply of such houses. This house was listed in the latter part of July for 2% higher than my appraisal estimate and is still on the market 79 days later. There are still 41 more days left in the 120 marketing time, but the data at the time of the appraisal said the average days on the market for houses like the subject was about 70. Looks like marketing time is stretching out a bit here. We’ll see what happens.

Now lets look at the house on 2.50 acres out in Brush Prairie. It is a 17 year old, 2,800 square foot house in good condition. This house had about a 10 month supply of inventory on the market at the time of the appraisal. I am way to shy to say what my forecasting was, but I will say I think it was way too low. The difficulty with that particular time of this particular year was that the bottom was just cracking and had not yet fallen out of the market. I see that this house has been on the market for 87 days. That gives it 31 more days to stay inside the 120 day marketing time. It was priced 6% above my appraised estimate. We’ll see what happens.

Now for a look at a Felida example. This is a house that was way over priced and on the market for a while before I came along. It is a ten year old house of 2,500 square feet of living area on a quarter acre. Good neighborhood. It looked at the time of the appraisal that there was an eight month supply of this product. My appraisal was relatively conservative and received some negative comments when submitted. Someone thought I was too low in the estimate of anticipated sales price. After all, it had been on the market for a much higher price. Now the house has been on the market since its re-listing just after my appraisal, for 124 days. Boy, I thought I was doing quite a good job on that one. It is still listed as active, not pending. We’ll see what happens.

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser pwas.net

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I recently saw a fourplex in Vancouver. It is an older building offering some of the smaller units on the market. It serves a purpose for those with limited income and/or want a small space to live in. It sold about a year ago for about $330,000 to $340,000. It was conventionally financed. I appraised it this week for $265,000. The market data was scattered, but all pointed to an obvious value range. I wouldn’t say the market has declined 25% in the last year. But, it does look like some appraiser had his or her nose pushed hard into the wind when they did the appraisal to support the financing a year ago. The property is in foreclosure. The days on market are in the 200 to 300 range these days close in S.E. Prices don’t seem to be dropping yet. But, as the marketing times expand prices will have to drop or remain stable for some time until the market warms back up. During 2005 the average days on the market for fourplexes close in S.E. was 60. For 2006 it was 42. In 2007 it is 251. And, financing is getting more difficult. Rental rates have risen much slower than prices have risen making it very difficult for a property to carry its own weight, even after taxes.

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser PWAS.NET

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October 2007
Today’s topic discussion covers-real estate appraisal Washington- the detached housing market in the Hazel Dell and Lake Shore districts of Clark County Washington. The territory covered ranges from Lake Shore Avenue, 119th St, I-5 to 78th St.
As of October 2007 there were 135 listings in this category. The high list price was $799,900 and the low was $212,000. The average list price was $385,392. The average sales price for sales in this category over the last 12 months was $305,568 (Note: This is the average over the last 12 months, not just the recent month). The high days on market (DOM) was 396, with the low being zero (0) and the average 63. The average list to sales price ratio was 98%. A year ago the average sales price to list price was 99%. With a total sold of nine (17) in the last month and 135 on the market there is currently about an eight (8) month supply on the market.
Although average marketing time, or Days on Market (DOM), was 39 a year ago and now is 63 (a 61% increase) the marketing times have been reasonable at less than 90 days over the past year. However, with an eight (8) month supply currently on the market the DOM is likely to rise somewhat. And, at the same time, appreciation in Clark County as a whole has been 4.7% over the last 12 months. By comparison it was 10.6% in January of this year for the prior twelve months average. So, you can see it has been dropping. And, it is predicted to continue to drop.
Forecasting is hard to predict. With the market cooling as it is, sales slowing, inventories rising, what the next three to four months hold in store will be interesting to see.
Available interest rates locally for fixed 30 year hover around 5.5% to 6.25% and 15 year from about 5.0% to 5.5%. This is still a very favorable climate for market activity except for the current high inventories (and, of course, the loss of available money for the B, C and D credits).
Statistics are from the local MLS
Ralph Olsen, Appraiser PWAS.net

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October 2007
Today’s topic discussion covers-real estate appraisal Portland Oregon- the detached housing market in Multnomah County Oregon. The territory covered is the Rose City area from 42nd Avenue to 82nd Avenue.
As of October 2007 there were 197 listings in this category. The high list price was $799,000 and the low was $159,950. The average list price was $341,131. The average sales price for sales in this category over the last 6 months was $355,535 (Note: This is the average over the last 6 months, not just the recent month). The high days on market (DOM) was 253, with the low being zero (0) and the average 34. The average list to sales price ratio was 99%. A year ago the average sales price to list price was 97%. (This if for the whole market, not just attached housing.) With a total sold of 22 in the last month and 137 on the market there is currently about a six (6) month supply on the market.
Although average marketing time, or Days on Market (DOM), was 27 a year ago and now is 34 (a 26% increase) the marketing times have been reasonable at less than 90 days over the past year. However, with a 6 month supply currently on the market the DOM is likely to rise somewhat. And, at the same time, appreciation in Multnomah County as a whole has been 7.2% over the last 12 months. By comparison it was 14.4% in January of this year for the prior twelve months average. So, you can see it has been dropping. And, it is predicted to continue to drop.
Forecasting is hard to predict. With the market cooling as it is, sales slowing, inventories rising, what the next three to four months hold in store will be interesting to see.
Available interest rates locally for fixed 30 year hover around 5.5% to 6.25% and 15 year from about 5.0% to 5.5%. This is still a very favorable climate for market activity except for the current high inventories (and , of course, the loss of available money for the B, C and D credits). Statistics are from the local MLS

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser at PWAS.NET

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October 2007
Today’s topic discussion covers-real estate appraisal Washington- the attached housing market in Clark County Washington. The territory covered ranges from Vancouver, to Camas/Washougal, to Battle Ground, to Ridgefield, Washington.
As of October 2007 there were 291 listings in this category. The high list price was $849,900 and the low was $149,950. The average list price was $275,392. The average sales price for sales in this category over the last 12 months was $359,384 (Note: This is the average over the last 12 months, not just the recent month). The high days on market (DOM) was 334, with the low being zero (0) and the average 85. The average list to sales price ratio was 99%. A year ago the average sales price to list price was 95%. (This if for the whole market, not just attached housing.) With a total sold of nine (9) in the last month and 298 on the market there is currently about a 33 month supply on the market.
Although average marketing time, or Days on Market (DOM), was 55 a year ago and now is 85 (a 55% increase) the marketing times have been reasonable at less than 90 days over the past year. However, with a 33 month supply currently on the market the DOM is likely to rise significantly. And, at the same time, appreciation in Clark County as a whole has been 4.7% over the last 12 months. By comparison it was 10.6% in January of this year for the prior twelve months average. So, you can see it has been dropping. And, it is predicted to continue to drop.
Forecasting is hard to predict. With the market cooling as it is, sales slowing, inventories rising, what the next three to four months hold in store will be interesting to see.
Available interest rates locally for fixed 30 year hover around 5.5% to 6.25% and 15 year from about 5.0% to 5.5%. This is still a very favorable climate for market activity except for the current high inventories (and ,of course, the loss of available money for the B, C and D credits).
Statistics are from the local MLS

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser at PWAS.NET
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October 2007

Today’s topic discussion covers -real estate appraisal Washington-the manufactured housing market in Clark County Washington. It deals with manufactured houses on one (1) to twenty (20) acre sites. The territory covered ranges from Vancouver, to Camas/Washougal, to Battle Ground, to Ridgefield, Washington.

As of September 2007 there were 39 listings in this category. The high list price was $449,900 and the low was $199,000. The average list price was $300,126. The average sales price for sales in this category over the last 12 months was $271,495 (Note: This is the average over the last 12 months, not just the recent month). The high days on market (DOM) was 281, with the low being three (3) and the average 77. The average list to sales price ratio was 97%. A year ago the average sales price to list price was 95%. With a total sold of five (5) in the last month and 39 on the market there is currently about an eight (8) month supply on the market.

Although marketing time, or DOM, was 55 a year ago and now is 77 (a 40% increase) the marketing times have been reasonable at less than 90 days over the past year. However, with an eight (8) month supply currently on the market the DOM is likely to rise significantly. And, at the same time, appreciation in Clark County as a whole has been 4.7% over the last 12 months. By comparison it was 10.6% in January of this year for the prior twelve months average. So, you can see it has been dropping. And, it is predicted to continue to drop.

Forecasting is hard to predict. With the market cooling as it is, sales slowing, inventories rising, what the next three to four months hold in store will be interesting to see.

Available interest rates locally for fixed 30 year hover around 6% to 6.5% and 15 year from about 5.5% to 6%. This is still a very favorable climate for market activity except for the current high inventories (and ,or course, the loss of available money for the B, C and D credits).

Ralph Olsen, Appraiser PWAS.NET

Statistics are from the local MLS

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